In the words of my dear friends Matthew, Will, Jen, Rachel and Stephanie:
BLA-DOW. BLADOW BLADOW BLADOW!
The killer? The absolute BEST part about this article? HAS to be the timing. It was reported he was to announce his kick off for re-election today.
So let's re-evaulate the playing field here a bit.
Hizzoner's approval ratings are at an all time low. The press, specifically the liberal-slanted Free Press is showing their teeth and biting Kwame's gang every chance they get.
That leaves us with three other options: Hendrix, McPhail and Clarke.
Removing Clarke from the equation...because all he's really in it to do is split the vote and see what he can get from either candidate...you have Freman vs. Sharon, assuming Freman can raise enough funds to get through the primary relatively intact. Kilpatrick has enough money, but I don't think all the money in the WORLD could save him at this point without the full throated support of two integral groups: church goers and seniors. And the chances of that happening are similar to those of me dropping about 40lbs within the hour.
SO with that in mind:
Let's say McPhail emerges post-primary as the leader by a very slim margin. The more momentum she can generate, the more undecideds and women votes who originally were going to vote for Clarke, Kilpatrick or Hendrix will lean towards her. The unions will not endorse any candidate at this point because of Hendrix's past trials and tribulations with them, to say nothing of his role in the school board controversy...Kilpatrick's strained relationship with them will not have the two cozying up to one another any time soon....and McPhail and City Council? Shit. I don't even have to start on that one.
But even then, let's take the unions...both city and industrial...out of the picture for a second. McPhail still has the advantage on name recognition. Hendrix is well known by those in Detroit who actively follow politics, but not on a common level like Kilpatrick and McPhail do. And by the way, that name recognition will be the thing that saves Hizzoner from totally tanking. This name recognition makes the mighty Hendrix communications machine hit a brick wall and become their greatest disadvantage, well...their greatest disadvantage behind the funding struggles.
These problems give McPhail the advantage, as she doesn't have to worry (as much) about Freman as she does Hizzoner, who has the money, PR and war chest to scale a full sized battle against the high priestess of insanity. Figure in her power of two running mate to rope in the police union, and gather the rest of the "i'm totally undecided but i've decided hell naw to Kwame" votes together to get a nice little army together.
Though I'm very VERY much against it, we could be looking at a Sharon McPhail vs. Kwame battle in November.
On the FLIPSIDE OF IT: Hendrix could steal those two groups from McPhail (women and seniors) and walk away as Hizzoner's main contender in the fall, which could very well make everyone from the unions and churches fall in line and rally around him for support. This could also sway undecideds originally leaning towards Sharon to throw their vote behind Freman as the lesser of three evils. However, the teacher's union and those pro-education are still burnt by Freman's involvement in the educational controversy of the nineties, and memories and scars in this town sure run deep. So Kwame gets the teachers and a few strains of union support, maybe even some nice fat donations from big bidness. Freman and Sharon get everything else. Freman also gets Dennis Archer's endorsement.
Whomever his opponent may be, I don't forsee Kwame walking away from this fight with the title belt around his waist.
Unless Dennis Archer throws his hat in the ring for re-election, and shortly following that announcement Jesus Christ will be doing a breakdancing exhibition right in front of the city statues on Woodward.
Posted by rob at May 17, 2005 07:13 AM